A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
